“Asia, of course, remains vulnerable to global liquidity and commodity price shocks. However, absent an outright global or regional shooting war, economic fundamentals should allow the majority to weather such shocks better than in the past. Meanwhile, equity and FX valuations seem undemanding.
Chinese politics increasingly complicate the “rational” economic, regulatory, diplomatic and healthcare discourse which will tend to deliver slower cyclical and structural growth than hoped for in Beijing. While foreign capital remains willing/is allowed to continue to engage, a messy denouement seems unlikely. In many ways, China resembles more Japan than Asia-1997 albeit without the accumulated wealth or social capital.
The opportunity set for the rest of the region is to position itself to benefit from a multi-decade process of supply chain recalibration and tech standards Balkanisation. The chances for the first, sustained region-wide capex boom since the Asian crisis are on the rise, subject to a semblance of peace – cold or otherwise – prevailing.”
Dr Simon Ogus has lived in Hong Kong for more than three decades and is the founder and CEO of the independent consultancy DSGAsia Limited. For twenty-plus years, DSGAsia has offered analysis of the economies and politics of Asia, working with a variety of multinational and regional entities in the financial, non-financial and governmental spheres.
Simon serves on the board of a number of companies and official bodies, and has held academic positions and lectured at various regional universities. Prior to starting his own company, Simon worked in fund management and subsequently investment banking. From 1994 to 1999, Simon was Managing Director and Chief Economist for Asia at Swiss Bank Corporation (subsequently SBC Warburg and then UBS), Hong Kong. During this time, he was consistently voted as one of the top ranked macro analysts in the region and is generally recognised as one of the few analysts who accurately predicted both the Asian and the 2007-08 global economic and financial crises.
Simon originally trained as an actuary. He gained his PhD in Chinese Economic History and Development from the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies and also holds an MSc in Management and Finance from the University of London’s Imperial College and a BA in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Manchester.