The Battle of the Bases

Date: April 14, 2021

Time: 14:00 GMT

Location: Zoom presentation

The Deposit Base of the US banking system is surging as the Biden Administration ‘monetizes’ its stimulus package but the Collateral Base within the financial system is shrinking, as both the volume and price of the existing supply of treasuries decline.  We believe that it is the latter that will matter most to the equity markets and currencies over the medium term – could we be heading for an “LTCM Moment”?

Prior to forming AHEL in 2001, Andrew spent over 12 years as an economist advising both the board and portfolio managers of the Dresdner Bank Group, initially in the UK and subsequently based in the Asian Region. In the late 1980s while based in London, Andrew worked extensively on the UK’s Lawson Boom and subsequent unwinding, as well as on the various travails and ultimate break-up of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Andrew also covered the events that led up to the S&L Crisis of 1989-90.

Whilst in Asia, Andrew covered both the formation and bursting of the Japanese Bubble Economy and the Asian Boom and Bust of the 1990s. Indeed, it has been suggested that Andrew was one of the few economists to correctly predict both the preceding upswings and the timing and consequences of the subsequent crises that were associated with these episodes. On returning to London in the late 1990s, Andrew covered the genesis and demise of the NASDAQ Bubble, and the troubled formation of the Euro.

Since forming AHEL, Andrew has covered the Post 2001 Deflation Scare and the formation of the Global Credit Bubble that preceded the GFC.  Indeed, with help from his Investment and Central Bank contacts, Andrew was able to correctly predict – and time – the GFC.  During the 2010s, Andrew has been heavily involved in covering the Euro Crisis and his coverage of the Chinese economy has also received numerous plaudits.  Over the last few years, Andrew has tended to concentrate many of his efforts on examining the implications for financial markets of both the 2017 Global Credit Boom and the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening

Andrew has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of Bristol in the UK and an unfinished PhD on Japanese Monetary Policy formation that one day he hopes finally to complete.