Past Events
Robin Griffiths and Ron William will lead us in a discussion entitled “Navigating the 2026 Cycle Convergence: Opportunities, Risks & Portfolio Resilience” : a forward-looking session on how investors can anticipate risk, capture opportunity, and structure portfolios resilient to 2026’s multi-cycle and disruptive environment.
As 2026 begins, global markets are entering a rare cycle convergence, identified through the Roadmap Signature Model (RSM) developed by Robin Griffiths and later expanded with Ron William, incorporating tactical overlays and proprietary timing models. The RSM integrates adapted Schumpeterian macro forces, including long-wave inflation trends (Kondratieff), ~41-month business cycle, and U.S. political cycle. Historically, these cycle intersections have coincided with heightened volatility, structural asset repricing, and periods when traditional diversification is challenged.
Adding to the complexity is the emergence of a multipolar global order, reshaping trade flows, reserve currency dynamics, and cross-border capital allocation. Investors now face an environment where geopolitical realignment intersects with financial and economic cycles, amplifying both risks and opportunities.
The cycle-based macro and cross-asset analysis will guide this discussion, covering:
- Cross-Asset Leadership Signals:
Commodities—particularly precious and industrial metals—are leading, with oil structurally constrained, deeply undervalued, and heavily shorted, positioning it as a potential late-cycle leader alongside metals in 2026. - Inflation & Rates Dynamics:
Markets are transitioning to a volatility-driven regime, rather than a straightforward disinflation path, as liquidity tightens and yields rise. - Equity Risk Premium Reset:
Higher real rates, liquidity withdrawal, and multipolar pressures favour defensive and real assets over growth-duration equities. - Portfolio Positioning Themes:
Capital preservation, liquidity management, and optionality remain central to navigating cycle intersections and geopolitical shifts.
Robin Griffiths, FSTA
Robin Griffiths is Senior Advisor & Investment Strategist at RW Advisory (RWA).
Additionally, he also contributes to the Adaptive Asset Allocation Newsletter at Bytetree.
Previously, Robin served as Head of Multi-Asset Research & Advisory at the ECU Group. He was previously Chief Technical Strategist at HSBC Investment Bank for 20 years, before becoming Head of Global Asset Allocation at Rathbones, and then a director and technical strategist for Cazenove Capital Management. Robin was a Partner of WI Carr and Head of Technical Analysis at Grieveson Grant.
Robin is a committee member and former chairman of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA), and former chairman, now fellow, of the British Society of Technical Analysts (STA). Robin has been a member of ECU’s Global Macro Team for over 20 years. Robin has won several Technical Analyst awards for his research.
Ron William, CFTe
Ron William is founder & CIO of RWA, an award-winning, macro-tactical, research and advisory firm, to a wide range of financial institutions & professionals, producing differentiated alpha, insightful idea generation and unique market timing.
He specialises in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis, driven by cycles, based on the expanded Roadmap Signature Model (RSM) of veteran market technician Robin Griffiths, originally published in Robin’s book “Mapping the Markets“. Additional insights also featured in their peer interview exchange hosted by Real Vision, T3 reports on Substack and Halkin Services letter contribution.
Driven by impactful education, Ron trains financial institutions and serves on the board of a variety of professional societies, notably as MENA director, education committee member of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) and Development Director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles(FSC)
Halkin is very pleased to welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner of New York-based natural resources investor Goehring and Rozencwajg. G&R use original research to uncover value in commodities and natural resource equities. Since 2017, they have managed the G&R Global Natural Resources Strategy fund.
Adam will present a contrarian view of the outlook for US oil and natural gas, arguing that shale production is close to a geological peak. He will also address President Trump’s nuclear revolution and the implications for uranium.
Adam Rozencwajg serves as Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates. He has 18 years of investment experience. Between 2007 and 2015 Adam worked exclusively on the Global Natural Resources Fund at Chilton Investment Company with Leigh Goehring. Prior to joining Chilton Investment Company, Adam worked in the Investment Banking department at Lehman Brothers between 2006 and 2007. Adam holds a Bachelor of Arts degree with a major in Economics/Philosophy from Columbia University and is a CFA charter-holder.
Halkin is very pleased to welcome back Mike Orme, co-founder of the advisory Signum Intel, Mike will:
- Set the scene with profiles of Sam Altman of OpenAI and Liang Wenfeng of DeepMind
- Explain why the parallels with the dot-com era are inexact
- Discuss the threat of China Inc flooding the world market with cheap AI that’s 80-90% as good as prestige US offerings
- Consider whether the vast capex on US AI data centers will prove justified?
- Suggest investment opportunities in data center power and cooling infrastructures and in embodied AI rather than cloud based GPT.
Mike Orme has been a technology forecaster and analyst for 40 years, armed with a strong aversion to hype and hand-waving. Left field is his natural habitat. He worked directly with Steve Jobs and Andy Grove on projects while at the legendary Silicon Valley consultancy Regis McKenna, broke the story on the BBC behind the collapse of the Japanese 5th Generation Computer project, spent nearly a decade as a global consultant at HP, helped companies spun out from Cambridge University find start-up capital, headed up technology research at Centrum and Mirabeau, and worked closely with Cyrus Mewawalla at CM Research. Mike also founded the Signum Intel advisory for global fund managers and wrote one of the first books on the semiconductor revolution: Micros: A Pervasive Force.
His career spans many roles, including Secretary of the joint Treasury/Bank of England Home Finance Committee; Private Client portfolio manager at leading City stockbrokers – Kitcat & Aitken and J&A Scrimgeour (now long absorbed into investment banks); Mr Bearbull at the Investors Chronicle; Editor, Technology Magazine; Head of Regis McKenna (UK) – working with Apple, Intel and HP among others; Associate partner, Peat Marwick – when it acquired Regis McKenna (Europe); Market relations/analyst relations consultant, HP (Europe); Co-founder/Director, Blue Sky Forum linking Oxbridge spin-outs to business angels and VCs; PR strategist, Apama Ltd (now part of Progress Software); Global strategist, Westhall Capital (London) – produced monthly briefing, Peripheral Vision, for FMs and ran frequent brain-storming sessions with Westhall clients in the UK and Asia; Global strategist, Centrum Capital (Mumbai, London). Produced monthly briefing, Mind Over Mania, and ran frequent brain-storming sessions with Centrum’s Indian clients; Freelance analyst providing in camera briefings to large global fund managers, as well as developing ‘Inside Track Ltd’ in Kenya to offer PE to East African ventures.